About these maps

Weather models are computer forecasts. The American GFS and the European ECMWF cover North America out to 10 days; they often disagree after a few days, and when they agree, confidence is higher.

The HRRR and HREF are NOAA's storm-scale models for the lower 48 states, hour by hour for the next 2 days. They draw individual thunderstorms, so their "computer radar" shows what radar might look like later. The HRRR is one model that runs every hour. The HREF blends several storm models, and its "chance" maps show how many of them make strong storms (40 dBZ or more on radar), rotating storms, or an inch of rain in 3 hours near each place. The exact spot and timing of single storms is often off.

These are raw model output, not an official forecast: for that, see the forecast for your place.