Fire weather outlook
- Day 1 (Wed 10/28): no wind and dry-air risk areas
- Day 2 (Thu 10/29): no wind and dry-air risk areas
- Day 3 (Fri 10/30): no wind and dry-air risk areas
- Day 4 (Sat 10/31): no wind and dry-air risk areas
- Day 5 (Sun 11/1): no wind and dry-air risk areas
- Day 6 (Mon 11/2): no wind and dry-air risk areas
- Day 7 (Tue 11/3): no wind and dry-air risk areas
No red flag warnings in effect right now.
What the levels mean
Days 1 and 2: Elevated: wind and low humidity make fires spread more easily. Critical: strong wind with very dry air and dry plants; fires can spread fast. Extremely critical: rare, dangerous fire spread is likely. Dry thunderstorms: lightning from storms that make little rain can start new fires (isolated or scattered).
Days 3 to 8: the chance of critical wind and dry air (40% or 70%) or of dry thunderstorms (10% or 40%) somewhere near each point.
Who should care, and what to do
- Oil and gas, refineries and pipelines: plan flaring, venting and hot-work permits around critical days; keep spark-producing work away from dry grass.
- Construction, welding and roofing: on critical days, postpone outdoor welding, cutting and grinding, or keep a fire watch and extinguishers close.
- Utilities: critical and extremely critical areas are where power shutoffs and line patrols are most likely.
- Farms, ranches and land managers: no outdoor or prescribed burning; keep vehicles and equipment off tall dry grass.
- Everyone: a Red Flag Warning from your local National Weather Service office is the official "act now" signal; this outlook is the heads-up days before.
What the forecasters say
The Storm Prediction Center's written fire weather reasoning (times in UTC).
Day 1 fire weather outlook issued Oct 28, 15:19 UTC
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track as previously described with no changes necessary. ..Stearns.. 10/28/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. Low-amplitude upper troughing will continue across the northern CONUS while upper ridging begins to weaken over the Southeast. High temperatures in the 80s and minimum RH values of 25-30% will overlap drought-stressed fuels in the lower MS River Valley. However, lighter prevailing winds will limit a fire weather threat over this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 fire weather outlook issued Oct 28, 05:49 UTC
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the Interior West, westerly flow aloft will gradually transition to southwesterly as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Pacific Northwest. Resultant increasing cloud cover across much of the western CONUS, lighter prevailing winds, and a marginal fuel environment will limit fire weather concerns. Upper ridging will continue across the Southeast with surface high pressure centered over the TN Valley, allowing warm and dry conditions to prevail. A lack of strong wind where fuels are available to burn, mainly across the lower MS River Valley and southern Appalachians, will preclude any significant fire weather threat on Day 2/Thursday. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Days 3-8 fire weather outlook issued Oct 27, 21:22 UTC
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A high amplitude trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest through at least Day 5/Saturday, leaving much of the western third of the CONUS under increased cloud cover, below normal temperatures, and periodic precipitation. The extended forecast period begins on Day 3/Thursday with nearly zonal flow atop much of the eastern half of the CONUS as the upper-level jet flows over the international border with Canada, promoting above normal temperatures from the Great Plains eastward. As the forecast progresses into Day 4/Friday, a subtle and transient ridge builds over portions of the Plains and South while a shortwave trough is expected to pass through the Southwest. The aforementioned resident trough over the West will begin to strengthen and nudge eastward on Day 6/Sunday, dragging cooler-than-normal temperatures and another round of widespread precipitation across much of the CONUS early next week. This will drop ERCs across the board even lower headed into next week. Areas with the driest antecedent conditions (generally over the lower MS River corridor), are anticipated to receive beneficial precipitation. Thus, any threat of significant fire weather remains low and will trend even lower by next week. ..Stearns.. 10/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Fire weather outlooks and discussions: NOAA Storm Prediction Center (public domain). Alerts: National Weather Service.